As America’s government prepares to take a sudden and historic leftward turn, this might seem an odd moment to ponder what a conservative country it is.
On Wednesday morning, unless the political equivalent of a giant meteorite hits Earth before then, Democratic supporters in America, in happy union with almost the whole of the civilised world, will be singing hosannas to the new President-elect. They will expect the Obama proto-administration and the expanded Democratic caucus in Congress to press hard to implement quickly their agenda of wealth redistribution; a tougher and broader scope of government regulation; and an enthusiastic embrace of foreign policy multilateralism.
But the new rulers and their allies overseas would be well advised to tone down the rhetoric, play down expectations and rein in their wilder tendencies. The easiest mistake for the world to make would be to start believing the Left’s own propaganda: that a vote for Barack Obama and for a Democrat in Congress on Tuesday is a vote to transform the country into a kind of social democratic paradise.
The base of this country is moderate conservative. Politicians have a very bad habit of believing their own press releases. Clinton over-reached in 92, misreading the vote against Bush and against Perot as a vote for his policies. We saw the result in 94. Then, Gingrich and the Republicans in 94 mis-understood the vote against the overreaching of the Democrats as an endorsement of the Conservative Republican’s policies. However, they maintained power and then let the power corrupt them. In 2008, we run the danger of Obama, Pelosi, and Reid misreading the anger at Bush as an endorsement of their policies and ideas. This would be just as wrong and may lead to another republican take over of the house and senate.
I believe most people want government to leave them alone, but help those who can’t help themselves.
YBIC,
Phil Snyder
Phil – I think you’re basically right, but studies on Gen Y (1980-2000) show a shift in upbringing that may soon change the “moderate conservative” label. Some interesting observations from here:
The rest of the post is worth reading as the blogger relates these characteristics to politics and the idea of “tolerance.”
“America isn’t about to become liberal heaven”
That’s certainly correct. If Barack Obama becomes president with hefty Democratic majorities in the Senate and House, their victory will still be preeminently a rejection of George W. Bush. Self-identified liberals will still comprise only a fifth of the electorate.
The Democrats will win future elections only if they pursue policies fairly close to the political center, as Bill Clinton did after 1994. Obama knows that. So do Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. Even more so do Rahm Emanuel and Charles Schumer, who’ve played a key role in Democratic congressional gains over the past two years. The challenge will be to impress the point on older, more liberal members of Congress, most of whom have safe seats.
Schumer and Emanuel will find strong allies among the Democrats who in 2006 and 2008 won in previously Republican districts. They are the blue canaries in the political coal mine. They will be the first to lose if their party falters. How effectively will they organize themselves (e.g., into a muscular Blue Dog Caucus)? How effectively will congressional leaders restrain the pursuit of a liberal nirvana? That remains to be seen. But more senior Democrats, including liberals, well remember life in the House under a Republican majority. They’ve been there and they don’t want to go back.
[i]a vote for Barack Obama and for a Democrat in Congress on Tuesday is a vote to transform the country into a kind of social democratic paradise.[/i]
I only hope the Democrats think so and overreach enormously. Every generation needs to have an experiment in socialism – we’re not bright enough to learn from history. It’s been a while (since the 70s), and now is as good a time as any.
[i]but studies on Gen Y (1980-2000) show a shift in upbringing that may soon change the “moderate conservative†label.[/i]
There’s that, and there’s also the fact that the government (and the Republicans no less enthusiastically than any others) is importing a new electorate.
Byzantine [#5]: Immigrants tend to hold traditional values. The Gen Y trend spells more telling demographics. It carries particular force because it resonates with the deep libertarian streak in American history and culture.
Irenaeus,
Gen Y is libertine, not libertarian. And the rates of social pathology are tragically high for Hispanic immigrants.
“The rates of social pathology are tragically high for Hispanic immigrants”
Byzantine [#7]: Do you mean the immigrants themselves or their children?